A more or less level endgame has been reached. White's passed pawn might be an asset as well as a weakness. But Black's queen blockading the pawn is not an ideal scenario. There is a collective misplacement of most of the pieces for both sides on the board! But this makes the game strategically complicated.
As we predicted, Black's pieces have started attacking Abdusattorov's passed pawn. But practically, it is White who has the edge, as he at least has a strong point in the isolated pawn to claim any advantage in the position.
Caruana unnecessarily tests the passed pawn's resolve, prodding it into moving forward. But this was an unnecessary provocation, as White slowly gains the initiative here.
An unnecessary weakening of the kingside. Needing just a draw, Caruana seems to be playing a little too safe here, thus allowing White to take over the initiative.
White allows the minor pieces to be exchanged—an unnecessary concession. In an open position, it was definitely worth preserving the bishop, the long-range piece.
Caruana tries for counterplay, but this rook ending seems to be heavily stacked in White's favor.
White has achieved a creditable victory! Needing a win by force to stay in the tournament, Abdusattorov played excellently when it mattered. Capturing the initiative slowly in the late middlegame, Abdusattorov was helped by Caruana's surprising lack of resilience in a minus position.
It was a game where Caruana self-destructed, needing just a draw, rather than Abdusattorov forcing his way to a win.