Nepo has a small edge, coming out of a classical Catalan Opening game. Though Arjun doesn't seem to have obvious weaknesses in his position, he has given up the bishop pair, and his queenside knight is awkwardly developed.
This has probably more to do with the match situation than the position on the board. In such a crucial game, Erigaisi obviously doesn't want a strategic fight, and hence tries to infuse tactics.
A crucial central break! Black's pieces are going to get quite active now. It will be interesting to see if Nepo will go with a complicated fight, or exchange pieces into an endgame.
Nepo wants to play it safe, but he has entered into an endgame where Nepo commands more activity for his pieces than white.
Nepo wants to keep it simple, keeping his pieces compact with the king aiding them, and hope to withstand Black's onslaught. Though he doesn't have any obvious weakness in his position, Nepo has a long term problem with his bishop here.
Though the knight isn't attacking anything, Erigaisi enjoys his position here. Nepo has to be careful with his moves here, not to give in to obvious pressure.
With this exchange of bishops, Nepo seems to have solved a major problem in the endgame. However, Black's occupying the open file is the key to his advantage here.
Though the position is equal, Nepo has fractured his pawn structure on the queenside, which is a long term concern.
Nepo allows Erigaisi to penetrate into the white position with his rook! Now, Erigaisi is on the offensive here, big time!
A crucial breakthrough. Black's rooks have found their way in to White's position. arjun has a huge advantage now.
Black is a simple pawn up now, and is well on his way to create connected passed pawns on the queenside.
Nepo is looking to find counterplay in the kingside, but Erigaisi's passed pawns are too quick here. It would take White too much time to create a passed pawn in the kingside.
Arjun played a controlled game, unlike his usual tactical offenses. Playing an endgame with a slight advantage, he was rewarded with Nepo's mistakes of giving in to pressure and thus enabling Erigaisi to proceed to the semifinals.
Arjun thus wraps up the match with a 2.5 - 1.5 score, the curious match where all the wins were achieved by Black pieces!
Thus, Arjun now goes on to the Semifinals, to meet the winner of the match between Abudasattorov - Firouzja.