Mishra means business, as he essays the sharp Sicilian Defense. Likely, Caruana's choice of king's pawn is motivated by a desire to fight this reputable, but certainly beatable, opening weapon.
Caruana jumps his knight out, preparing to push his central pawn forward.
Mishra hints at a Najdorf?
More often than not, this move order leads to Garry Kasparov's favorite Sicilian: the Najdorf!
Caruana pushes the central pawn forward, contesting the center immediately.
Taking back with the knight, establishing a strong central presence between pawn and knight.
Mishra steps his kingside knight out, targeting the pawn in the center.
Mishra does indeed go for this famous variation of the Sicilian, pushing his left-hand pawn forward in order to take control over an important square. The idea is typically to follow up by advancing the pawn forward in the center, without having to worry about any checks or knight jumps to the square that has just been covered.
Caruana seems to have prepared something within this more positional system against the Sicilian, though traditionally this option hasn't been seen as especially threatening.
Mishra grabs as much of the center as possible, pushing Caruana's knight back to a more passive square. One slight drawback though is that now Mishra has a hole (an outpost) that Fabi will seek to exploit in the future.
Caruana completes the fianchetto, and is now ready to castle. One of the big benefits of his bishop on this square, is that it covers the central point, making it harder for Mishra to advance.
Both kings find the typical shelter on the kingside, with the play likely to revolve now around the central outpost, as well as perhaps some queenside play typical of the Sicilian Najdorf.
Mishra pushes forward on the queenside, with the point being that perhaps he can continue to advance this pawn and harass Caruana's knight. Plus, he may wish to fianchetto his light-squared bishop, though that is less common.
Caruana goes for an immediate pawn break, making contact with the enemy pawn in order to try to introduce some weaknesses to Mishra's structure on the left hand side.
After a series of trades, the play follows a very concrete path with both players rattling off their moves. The question is: whose theory is going to run out first?!
Forced, since there was no good way of defending the rook from the attack.
Caruana combines development with attack, bringing his bishop forward to strike the rook.
Now that Caruana's queen was forced back, she no longer controls the corner square. So Mishra is able to use it to retreat his rook out of harm's way.
Caruana expands on the kingside
This plan has almost never been seen before, but it makes a lot of sense. Fabiano is using the fact that his pawn push is supported by the pawn to the right side of it, in order to try to carve out as much central control as possible.
Caruana looks to reroute his knight, since from that square its activity was very limited.
Mishra finishes his minor piece development
One risky-looking but ambitious option for Fabi would be to keep pushing his kingside pawn. That would force Mishra's bishop back, and perhaps set the stage for a strong attack down the line. Let's see if he goes for it...
Caruana goes for a natural-looking move, but one that turns out to overlook a key tactical opportunity for Mishra! It's not an easy move to find however...
He recognizes Caruana's mistake, and immediately exploits it. This is the problem with Fabi's earlier knight move. Now, if Caruana takes twice in the center to win a pawn, then his pieces will get all jumbled up and overloaded once Mishra deploys his dark-squared bishop onto the long diagonal!
The reason it's so tricky to spot, and hence why Fabi overlooked it, is that the move order matters a lot. If Caruana wins the pawn in the center, then it's first rook over for Mishra to target the knight, and only afterwards hit the queen with the bishop.
The central knight was simply too strong, so Caruana decides to eliminate it. The big question is: how will he proceed once Mishra recaptures? The problem is that the pawn will be poisoned, while Fabi's overall position is very unstable.
Caruana under pressure!
Quite the turn of events in the penultimate round of the Championships. This position is quite unpleasant for Fabiano, and frankly extremely difficult to turn around to the point of winning. So Fabi will likely have to go into defense mode for a very long time now, opening the tournament back up for Wesley and even for Levon Aronian, who will face Fabi tomorrow!
Caruana anticipates the coming attack against his knight, so he drops it back immediately.
Mishra takes over the semi-open file
By pressuring the pawn that Caruana is barely just defending, Mishra effectively ties down Fabi's queen and ramps up the piece pressure.
Caruana looks to coordinate
A logical choice, stepping away from possible skewers (if Mishra were able to bring his bishop forward to hit the queen). At the same time, if Caruana moves his knight at some point, then the rook will defend the vulnerable pawn from the side.
Mishra defends his pawn
It might seem as though his central pawn is a little weak, as it's doubled and isolated. But in fact, it's just not easy at all for Caruana to win it. And because it's in enemy territory, it does a great job of restricting Fabi's piece play. In short, it's a very thorny pawn!
Caruana stays patient
He will know that the key to turn things around here is to slowly but surely improve his piece coordination, before turning his attention to trying to win that nasty central pawn of Mishra's. Fabi recognizes he will have to move his knight sooner or later, and so his bishop now joins in a future 'fight' against the enemy light-squared piece.
Mishra continues to find natural and strong moves, overprotecting his strong pawn in the center while connecting his rooks.
Caruana moves to a light square
Given that Mishra is the only side with a dark-squared bishop, it's not a good idea for Fabiano to keep his king on a dark square for any longer than necessary. So, as part of the 'clean-up' of his piece coordination, he lifts his king towards a light square.
Mishra prepares to target the pawn
He wants to plant both of his rooks on the semi-open file (a file where only one side has a pawn). The reason is that then, Fabiano's exposed pawn would be under immense pressure.
Caruana beginning to wriggle out?!
In spite of Mishra's last move being very natural, it wasn't actually the best. Now, Fabi steps his knight out and - in some cases - might be able to bring his queen forward and generate some play against Mishra's pawn chain on the left hand side. Things are looking much less clear all of a sudden!
It's clear that Mishra was not happy with the trend the game was moving towards, and so he bails out and forces an opposite colored bishop endgame. With it, not only does his advantage disappear, but in fact if anything it's Fabi that has the better position. Mishra is clearly looking to try to draw the game from here, but this timid approach could backfire...
Caruana is happy to set up doubled pawns, since now he's going to have a very stable outpost for his bishop to land on in the future. This position is risky for Mishra, as with the queens on the board, Fabi can hope to drum up an attack combining his light-squared bishop with his queen.
Caruana drops back
He's now ready to bring his bishop into the game. Though it's not clear if he'll plant it on the more active square, or just look to consolidate the position a bit more by driving it in front of the pawn.
Mishra drops his own queen back, targeting the undefended pawn. I think this will make Caruana's mind up when it comes to where to put the bishop.
Caruana does move his bishop to the safer square. This makes sense, as it protects the central pawn and also cuts out any chance of Mishra bringing his rook down to the seventh rank (Fabi's second rank).
A typical idea, giving some mobility for his bishop and also setting up a possible pawn break in the future. Though that would definitely come with some risk, as it would lead to the position opening up. And Mishra's king might become the easier target in that case.
Caruana hints at an attack
For now, he's just grabbing a little bit of space and improving his position. But Fabiano will also understand that he has the better long-term chances of an attack , since he has the more active bishop. With this move, Mishra might start to feel a little uncomfortable.
Mishra steps his king forward, moving it from a vulnerable light square to a safer dark square (away from any attacks from Caruana's bishop).
A tough nut to crack
Mishra definitely doesn't have any active plans available to him, at least none that are threatening. But even for Caruana, who has the better position, it's going to be extremely difficult to find a breakthrough since Mishra's position is rock solid.
The shuffling begins
An easy way to tell that neither side has a particularly effective plan, is when you see things like the king first lifting to one square, then dropping back shortly after. It's a sign that Mishra recognizes he can't improve his position, but also feels confident that there's no real threat coming from Fabiano that he needs to take measures against.
Caruana improves his bishop for now
Next, we can expect that he'll bring his left-hand rook onto a more central file. But after this, the path to further improvement becomes very hazy fast.
Caruana brings in his rook, guarding against the threat on the pawn.
Caruana overprotects his pawn, but the problem remains: he lacks a concrete way of breaking through.
Mishra sits in wait
He knows that there's just no convincing or straightforward plan available for Caruana to try. And what's more, if Fabi does try to make a break-through, he'll have to risk giving Mishra counterplay. So right now, the 16-year old is likely feeling very comfortable here on the 'defending' side of an equal position against the world number 3!
Mishra locks down the structure even further
The move wasn't strictly necessary, but it keeps things simple.
A bold choice of move by Mishra, recognizing that if Caruana trades then the queenless endgame should be straightforward to draw, even if his pawn structure will take a slight hit.
A string of moves have been played, but the contours of the position haven't changed. Both sides are for now just shuffling, with Fabiano hoping that he can induce a mistake from his less experienced opponent.
Will Caruana take the draw?
It's clear that Mishra is happy to call it a day, but Fabiano would love to find a way to at least pose some practical problems for his opponent. There doesn't seem to be any way to do so though -- will Fabi decide to call it quits here and go for a 3-fold repetition?
It feels like we could just a few short moves away from a draw here, as neither side seems to be making any attempt to make progress.
If Caruana is going to make a breakthrough, he's likely going to be thinking about sacrificing the exchange at the right moment. So moving his queen to a square from where it eyes up the central pawn makes sense.
Mishra continues to move back and forth, confident that Caruana doesn't have any good plan.
Still no change
It's been more of the same for a long time now, and Caruana may have to think about trading queens here if he wants to keep playing.
A slight change to the position at last, as Caruana desperately searches for a way to try to eke out the full point in this game.
By defending the central pawn, Caruana is ready to potentially challenge for the open file.
Mishra gets there first, doubling up rooks to cut out the plan that Caruana may have had.
The king isn't doing much on the right hand part of the board. So Caruana may be looking to bring it towards the center.
The king arrives!
Honestly, Mishra might be regretting being so nonchalant about offering the queen trade repeatedly. It wasn't strictly necessary, and now Caruana gets to press for a very long time without running any risk at all.
Back to shuffling, as Mishra continues to sit in wait, while Caruana is struggling to find a way to make any further improvements to his position.
While I admire Caruana's gritty determination to try to extract more than a draw from this position, I have to admit that it's not the most exciting to commentate on (or watch, I imagine!).
This move is the key to what is now likely to end in a draw. The point is that if Caruana takes the pawn, then he can use tactics to win his pawn back on the spot!
Caruana had nothing better than to trade rooks, but now Mishra will be able to trade off an important pair of pawns.
It will come as a relief for Mishra to eliminate this pawn, that was holding up Caruana's defenses along the dark squares.
Still some very real practical chances, given how little time there is on the clock for both players. Caruana will hope to push the pawn and isolate (and later snatch) Mishra's advanced kingside pawn.
Firstly, Caruana has to stop Mishra from stepping his bishop forward and trying to hunt the base of his pawn chain.
Mishra looks to have the perfect defensive setup now, as he blocks Caruana from pushing his pawn forward.
Still equal, but a little dangerous in practice for Mishra, as Caruana will now be able to get a well-supported passed pawn.
A chaotic time scramble, but things are starting to look a little scary for Mishra as he's about to lose the left-hand pawn.
Mishra has to watch out for losing a second pawn. Not an easy defense at all, even if it remains within the bounds of a draw according to the computer.
Under huge pressure, Mishra has blundered! Instead, he needed to have advanced his king, but that is such a hard detail to understand when down to just seconds. Caruana might just get the win he's been fighting so hard for!
If Caruana gives the check, it's over! Mishra's rook will be lost!
Mishra gets the rook back, but it's nowhere near enough. Caruana has too many pawns.
Fabiano Caruana landed in hot water early on in his game against Abhimanyu Mishra, overlooking a clever tactic involving an early jump of the knight into the center.
From there, he had to withstand a lot of pressure, while the chance of turning things around and carving out a victory seemed remote at best.
However, after some excellent middlegame play, Mishra hesitated and showed his inexperience at a critical moment. Fabiano had been defending well and, perhaps frustrated and tired of the tension, Mishra chose to simplify into an opposite colored bishop middlegame.
He knew that with this decision, he was giving up his advantage. But what he perhaps underestimated was that Caruana would be able to play this position for a win, without taking any risk whatsoever.
While it remained a draw, the problem was that Mishra could do nothing but sit and wait for Caruana to try to find a way to make progress.
And here is where Fabi really used every ounce of his own extensive experience. What he did was sit, shuffle, and just generally wait...until both players were down to just minutes. Then, he struck and opened the game up! This left Mishra having to find some difficult moves for the first time since the early middlegame, but with just seconds on his clock.
And, ultimately, that pressure and the shift from a quiet defense to an active one proved to be too much for the 16-year old.
Fabiano leaves the playing hall almost like a thief in the night, knowing that he was able to take a full point from what looked a certain draw. But it's a huge scalp for him, as he maintains a 1/2 point distance with second-placed Wesley, as we prepare for the final round tomorrow!
It's a two-horse race now. Caruana, or Wesley. Noone else can win the Championships!
Aronian - Caruana, and Wesley - Oparin tomorrow. See you then!
Can Caruana clinch it?
So far, the top seed has been performing excellently at this year's U.S. Championships. And with just two rounds to go, it's looking increasingly likely that he will clinch the title for what would be a fifth time in his career.
That would be a huge milestone in and of itself, and one thing that is likely to sweeten the pot for Fabiano, is that it would bring him level with Hikaru Nakamura, who has won the tournament five times. And while Hikaru has been absent from the Championships for some time now, perhaps an achievement like this by Caruana would tempt him to return for the 2026 edition?!
Speculation of that kind to one side, Fabiano is in an excellent position to clinch this one. And, if all were to go his way, he might even be able to do so with a round to spare. That's because he walks into round 10 with a 1/2 point lead over second placed Wesley So, and a full point over Aronian. Everything would have to go his way in an improbable way, but it's certainly possible.
For Fabiano, perhaps the most important thing will be to try to win today's game. A loss would be disastrous, but even a draw would not be ideal, since he faces Levon Aronian from the Black side in what is likely to be a decisive final round. If Fabi wins today, he ensures that the most that Levon can do is tie him on points. Whereas any other result, and Levon could leapfrog him if he can defeat him when they face off tomorrow.
A lot of permutations, and needless to say a very real possibility that Abhimanyu Mishra spoils the party with a victory from the Black side. It'll be interesting to see how this one unfolds.