Magnus in trouble!
He finds himself a full point behind a pack of four players who are all on 4 points after 6 rounds. This means that his fate is out of his hands. To start with, he must win against Bibisara Assaubayeva. And then, he must hope that at least one of the top four players lose, in order to catch up on points when matters will be decided on tiebreaks. A lot of things have to align for Magnus to avoid finishing in the bottom half, a result that would be devastating for his prospects in the Las Vegas edition of the 2025 Freestyle Chess Tour!
Magnus takes a sensible approach to the opening phase, seizing the center immediately and securing a slight edge.
Magnus is hoping to be able to collect the bishop so that he can play with the long-term asset of the bishop pair. But Assaubayeva can move her piece forward to avoid this!
Not a bad move, but it was better to keep the bishops. Now at least Magnus has a long-term edge to play for, and these are precisely the types of positions where he thrives.
A 'risky' move. Not in the sense that Magnus is risking losing here, but that by offering the queen trade it becomes a little easier for Assaubayeva to try to guid ethe game towards a draw, at least in theory.
Magnus is not afraid of an exchange of knight for bishop here, as the resulting minor piece imbalance will be in his favor. He's got an excellent grip over the dark squares.
Assaubayeva is quite passive here, and you get the feeling that so long as Magnus is in form, he'll find a way to break through sooner or later. But objectively, the advantage remains relatively small for now.
Assaubayeva has been playing excellently in the recent sequence of moves, and Magnus has been unable to build upon his slight advantage for now.
Assaubayeva plays the most natural move, but now Magnus' dark-squared bishop will immediately come to life. Suddenly, there are great chances on the horizon for the world number one!
Material is level, but Magnus is the side with the two bishops and with a 2 vs 1 pawn majority on the left hand side. The combination of these factors will make it very hard for Assaubayeva to defend long-term.
A big mistake by Assaubayeva, as she presents Magnus with a chance to capitalize by pushing his pawn forward. That pawn then cannot be captured without losing an exchange. Will Magnus spot the killer sequence?!
Magnus finds it! From here, life is still a little tricky in terms of converting, but with best play it should be possible.
Vincent Keymer has inflicted a defeat on Levon Aronian, meaning that Magnus can tie on points for shared 4th place, so long as he is able to convert this endgame advantage against Bibisara!
Looks like Magnus has a forced win now! He can take everything in the center, and then recover his piece with a nasty pin against Assaubayeva's remaining minor pieces!
Magnus finds it! Now it looks like it's game over. This resulting endgame with rook versus bishop offers no real chances for Assaubayeva to hold!
It's only a matter of time before Magnus converts his advantage here. His king is far too active and Assaubayeva is going to be progressively pushed back. Her knight remains frozen, tied to the defense of the central pawn.
Stepping the pawn forward might be the simpler path to victory for Magnus here, keeping his pawn chain intact.
Magnus may very well keep pushing his pawn, forcing Assaubayeva's knight back and preparing to move over with his king to gobble up the remaining pawn. It looks like we're in the final stages of the endgame.
One last trick for Assaubayeva! The pawn cannot be captured.
He now ties Levon Aronian with 4 points a piece, and a tiebreaker will now decide the fourth position in this group! Will the world number one be able to win his game and make it through to the top half by the skin of his teeth?!