Caruana signals his intention not to enter any deep theoretical lines here. By keeping the centre solid but dynamic, he wishes to play a long, protracted struggle, with a mix of strategic and dynamic ideas.
This kind of setup in the Italian Opening will see a long strategic struggle, but of the active variety. Anytime, we might see the game get dynamic, as per the mood and wish of the players, especially White.
Discouraging Black from expanding on the queenside, as well as getting ready to seize space on the queenside. The Italian opening is a rare system where both players will play on both sides from the beginning of the game.
Black is well equipped to watch over the center, while he waits for White to pronounce his strategy.
Interestingly, Caruana has already played this position at least twice before, against Carlsen and Nakamura. Which means that he has studied this position and knows it deeply.
Knowing the world champion, is he thinking of castling his king on the opposite side of the board? If so, we might see fireworks on the board today!
Gukesh has played this position before but hasn't played the queen move anytime. Which means that this is his specific preparation for the game.
Realizing that Gukesh might castle his king on the opposite side of the board, Caruana starts his operations with this pawn push!
After all, if and when the black king reaches the queenside, White's attack would have already started. More than anything, this move makes the game very sharp—we are definitely looking at a dynamic position on the board.
But whether castling on the other side of the board is still on the cards, we don't know! And we are eagerly awaiting that decision!
Now, when you look at it, this might have been a ploy by Gukesh to make Caruana push his pawns early on the queenside. After all, pawns that go forward cannot come back. Such advanced pawns need not be an advantage all the time. What can constitute a space advantage may turn out to be weaknesses for the target later on, too.
Now, the question remains if it was necessary for Gukesh to move his queen early. Was his motive really to make Caruana push his pawns on the queenside?
With a mild space advantage on the queenside, Caruana may not mind an exchange of queens here, though it will drastically reduce the dynamic quotient of the position.
The world champion likes his dynamism, but in this tournament, he has repeatedly shown his willingness to enter into queenless middlegames or endgames. This might be the way that he wants to explore new territories in his play, but it also means that the current game may not be one of his dynamic operations.
This was a reasonable decision from Caruana. He is guaranteed a slight edge in the endgame due to the space advantage and a certain discomfort of Black's bishop position. Also, this is a kind of setup that Caruana knows the world champion may not be comfortable with. This might have influenced his decision to exchange the queens.
Light-square bishops and queens are off the board now. In the resultant positions, Caruana's space advantage on the queenside may be of some use, as he can steer future play in that direction. Hence, White holds a slight edge here.
Paving the way for the dark bishop to be developed, and also watching over the queenside for any possible operations in the future.
Gukesh simply wishes to keep his rook in the first rank, where it will remain safe. More than anything, the rook will remain out of harm's reach from the reach of any white piece.
Caruana develops his bishop to a modest square. From here, the bishop will keep White's queenside pawns well supported while helping White to expand further. Also, Caruana is in no mood to exchange the dark bishops away, as it will mean inching closer to complete equality in the position.
Gukesh wishes to keep a favorable pawn structure on the queenside, but this might also become a long-term weakness. More than anything, this paves the way for a future advance of the white pawn on the queen bishop file, which may give him a bit of an initiative on the queenside. Or, white may even choose to double his rooks on the queenside flank.
Sensing the weakness created by Gukesh's previous move, Caruana rushes his kingside rook to an important file. The rook will oversee a breakthrough on the bishop file here. Caruana enjoys a small edge in the position here—he now has an intent to conduct the game, after all.
Gukesh gets ready to face White's pawn break in the bishop file. To that end, he moves the knight away so as to be able to support the bishop pawn.
This is a crucial position for Caruana - he has to find a concrete way to proceed, to exploit the mild initiative he has gained in the position.
Now, the nature of the game changes, as Caruana has something to play for and Gukesh has to start defending his queenside. It only remains to be seen if the attack on the queenside has much bite.
On another dimension, White has that mild initiative in the long run, and Black has to defend passively and patiently for a long time. This may not bode well for Gukesh. After all, it was in such an endgame only that the World Champion lost a game to Praggnanandhaa in the first round.
The white rook now looks down at Black's backward pawn. This will be a long game, as White will pile up more pressure on the file and may also find ways to extend his influence to other parts of the board.
Typical of his style of play, Gukesh comes out with a counterstrike. But this opens up another weakness for White to attack in the center.
Gukesh is typically a player who doesn't prefer to 'sit and defend' but rather prefers to 'fight his way out.' Also, he is a player who doesn't want to fight a battle only on one front—it is typical of him to open up lines and diagonals to make the position as complex as possible instead of a single linear defensive narrative.
Gukesh hopes to open lines to White's backward pawn in the central file so as to target it with his rooks later on. But the issue with this operation is that it might be virtually impossible to find a way to attack White's weak points, whereas Black's weak points are under the direct glare of the white pieces.
As expected, Caruana brings his other rook to the central file, targeting Black's pawn in its gaze. Now, Black has two weaknesses he has to defend, which will make his life difficult in the long run. More than anything, the position is a 'game for two results' for Caruana. He can keep control of the position and play for a win almost without any risk.
Only move for Black, supporting the attacked central pawn. And that is mainly Black's problem: Black's pieces, which have defensive duties, will never be able to develop counterplay in the long run.
Readying to bring the white King up the bord, and also getting ready to expand on the kingside when necessary
Gukesh supports the central pawn with a pawn, thus freeing one of his knights from its defensive duties. Though it might look as if the move weakens the light squares on the kingside, in the current scenario, it is not relevant. White will not be able to take advantage of such an advantage.
Such a move is played based on general principles, such as strengthening the white position on the kingside, getting the white king up the board as it gets closer to the center in the long run, and getting it ready to jump in if the necessity arises, etc.
Gukesh makes a principled move, getting his rook ready to ultimately attack White's backward pawn in the central file. It is a question if he will be able to attack the pawn at all, as his own knights stand in the way. Which makes us conclude that this is a move for the future, played in the present!
Though this is a principled decision, one cannot help feeling that it is too direct and too premature. After all, it is not for some time more that Black will be able to actually attack the pawn.
Now White's advantage is straightforward: all other things considered equal, White's pawn structure on the queenside is marginally better than Black's. Considering that the weaknesses are quite pronounced, it is important for Black to have a clear-cut defensive idea here to protect his weaknesses.
Gukesh decides to part with his bishop to exchange it for the white knight in the center. At first glance, this looks like an odd decision, as Black decided to exchange his bishop for a knight in an open position. (Bishop generally does well in such positions, after all).
This is where Gukesh's concrete thinking comes out: after this exchange, one of the black knights gets to stay in the center of the board, clearly influencing the game. And Caruana's bishop actually doesn't have a role in the current position, standing passively inside its own lines.
Black has two concrete ideas here: To bring his king out, and then bring his backward knight forward, attacking the white rook and influencing the center. It requires courage to take such decision with clarity of thought and reasoning, giving up a bishop in the process for a knight.
This is also part of Gukesh's style: Concrete over the General, always!
One of those general strengthening moves, gaining space on the kingside, and looking to fix any weakness there for the opponent. Also sticking to the endgame maxim, "Do Not Hurry!"
Gukesh is not afraid of a committal move on the kingside, worrying that the pawn might become a permanent weakness. He decides to plant a pawn in the opposite colour of the opponent's bishop, convinced that it is the correct thing to do in the long run.
Conviction!!
Note that Caruana has been playing constantly purposeful moves, but Gukesh has been up to the mark in defending the position so far. But, generally, the psychology of pressure is that the one who defends will always be more likely to make a mistake and crack than the one who attacks! So, it is Gukesh who has to be careful in such positions.
A simple defensive move: Gukesh brings up his rook to the sixth rank, preventing the white rook from asserting itself on the rank to attack the black pawn in the flank. preventing
So far, the game is proceeding evenly: Caruana has questions (or hints of questions!), and Gukesh has answers (or advanced intuition to future questions). Good play by these world-class players! Such 'correct' play without committing mistakes can be found only in top-quality games.
In the immediate future, the king also supports redeploying his backward knight upwards. It is one of White's misfortunes that Black is thus playing the game with an extra piece now: the King!
The once-dormant knight finally comes out of his cage, driving the white rook away. Black's pieces have all found better squares compared to a few moves ago and seem to enjoy better freedom.
This may be one of those moments where Caruana needs to be careful! If one keeps pressing for an advantage in an equal position, one would never know when one crosses the line from adventure to recklessness!
Gukesh finds a nice liquidating operation, getting rid of one of his weaknesses and exchanging a pair of minor pieces. This may be the starting point of the game effect a quick flurry of exchanges, followed by a draw!
The minor pieces are off the board now, and it will be only rooks left for battle, but without much of a chance for either side to hope for an advantage.
And we have reached a simple draw in the rook endgame!
Caruana gained a mild edge in the opening, which got converted into a playable edge in the endgame. However, Gukesh played concrete chess, consistently playing the best moves and improving his position. At some point, Caruana obviously lost track of the position, allowing Gukesh to liquidate into a simply drawn rook endgame.
The World Champion successfully defended with Black pieces, leaving Caruana tired for the top position along with Praggnanandhaa, as both wait to see if Wesley will also join them to have a glorious tiebreak session!
Starting the endgame under mild pressure, the World Champion has done well to play near perfectly to equalize the position currently. Now, to create pressure, Caruana has to come up with much deeper strategies rather than simple everyday ideas.
Intuitive, strategic players tend to play moves of general variety more, whereas enumerative, dynamic players tend to play concretely. These are two contrasting thinking processes of two diametrically different styles of players.
Gukesh is a leading player of the concrete people, whereas players like Wesley and Sevian are players of the general variety. It is always fascinating to understand players of these types and then follow their moves with that understanding in mind!
There are many ways to defend an inferior position: counterattack, gritty long defense, liquidating into another equalish position—preferably an endgame, going for one big tactic instead of a long patient defense, creating a material imbalance to complicate the game, etc. The best defensive players in the world—Anand, Carlsen, etc.—are/were able to defend a position in many different ways. It is always important that you don't have only ONE kind of defensive technique. The more, the merrier.
Both the players have consumed almost the same amount of time, and they have played quite quickly so far. Caruana has an hour and seventeen minutes remaining on his clock, to Gukesh's one hour and five.
Hence, the clock position is the same and of no worry to either of the players.
Welcome to the last round of the Sinquefield Cup! We have arguably the most exciting pairings for a single day, as the tournament joint-leader Caruana clashes with World Champion Gukesh, while Aronian clashes with the other tournament leader, Praggnanandhaa. What a matchup for a crucial round!
After capturing the lead as early as the fourth round, he has definitely slowed down, drawing his games in the last three rounds. Not just the result, but even his games showed a more solid approach to the game than being adventurous. Probably, he has his eyes on his qualification to the finals of the Grand Chess Tour more than anything. He is in fourth place right now in the Tour standings, and overcoming Aronian (second place in the Tour standings) and Firouzja (third in the Tour standings) will be his main priority than today's result. He also would like not to allow both Pragg and Wesley to overtake him.
Well, it's a complicated scenario!
What can we expect from the game today? It will be Caruana who will decide on the course of the game—to play a tactical game and go all out for an advantage, or to play a strategic game and thus 'keep control' of the game. Gukesh hasn't had a good run in the tournament, but knowing his outlook about chess, I expect him to play a full-fledged battle today, not shirking away from challenges. At the same time, he wouldn't want to take any undue risks with black pieces overall.
So...verdict: the nature of the game will depend on Caruana's opening choice!