Who will win Norway Chess 2025?!
It's been quite the ride in this year's edition of Norway Chess, with all sorts of dramatic moments in a tournament that has featured five of the world's top six!
Besides the sheer strength of each participant, it's also been fascinating to observe the clash of generations. On the one hand, we have the old guard, spearheaded by Magnus Carlsen alongside the likes of Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana. On the other, we've seen how the young generation has shown an ability to compete and in some cases outshine them.
And in the end, as we head towards the final and decisive round, all but two players are in with a chance to strike gold.
The world number 1, Magnus Carlsen, is in the lead. But only by the narrowest of margins, as he finds himself on 15 points in total. That's just half a point ahead of World Champion Gukesh Dommaraju!
Neither of these players have an edge over the other as they both command the Black pieces against similarly rated opponents. For Gukesh, he must hold off the advances of Fabiano Caruana, who will be hungry for victory after a disappointing streak of back-to-back losses in the last two rounds, just when it looked like he was poised to win the tournament outright.
For Magnus, he'll be facing Arjun Erigaisi. It'll be interesting to see what kind of a strategy he takes, as the Black pieces makes pressing for a win that bit more challenging, but too safe of an approach will leave his fate in the hands of Gukesh and Fabiano, something that Magnus likely intends on avoiding!
Whatever happens in any of the individual games today, I think we can be assured an especially exciting round of chess to cap off proceedings in Stavanger, Norway.
May the best man win!
Here we go!
Arjun decides to go for a queen's pawn opening for the final game of the tournament.
An interesting early decision!?
A curious choice from the Black side by Magnus. The reason I say this is that usually when a player wants to win at the highest levels, they go for a more flexible setup involving first developing their king's knight.
Erigaisi plays in principled fashion, developing the pawn forward. It's a temporary pawn sacrifice, since if it's captured Arjun will be able to win his pawn back very quickly.
The Queen's Gambit Declined
Magnus avoids taking the pawn, instead just supporting it by pushing his king's pawn up one square. A very classical approach so far by both sides.
Erigaisi develops his queenside knight
This move adds to the queenside pressure a little bit, and also hints at the possibility that Arjun will trade pawns in the center in the near future. That would be the Queen's Gambit Exchange, one of the oldest and most reputable variations within the entire system.
Magnus develops his kingside knight
This move order is an invitation to Arjun to go into those heavily theoretical waters of the QGD Exchange variation...let's see if he does that.
Indeed that's what Arjun had in mind! The idea behind trading pawns is that suddenly Arjun will have 2 pawns on the queenside and a chain of 5 on the other flank. While Magnus will have 4 on the queenside and 3 on the other flank. And this structure, known as the Carlsbad Structure, is meant to be ever so slightly better for the White side. That's the kind of tiny edges that modern Grandmasters fight for!
Magnus takes back
Actually, it's also possible to take back with the knight. But theory shows that that leads to a super dry endgame. Magnus has played that in the past, but usually only when he's happy to try to guide the game towards a draw immediately. So it looks like for now he wants to keep winning chances alive.
Erigaisi pins the knight
Arjun will step his king's pawn forward very soon, so he wants to develop his bishop before doing so. Otherwise it could end up passively trapped behind a wall of friendly pawns.
Magnus breaks the pin
That's one benefit, while the other is simply to prepare to castle very soon.
Erigaisi continues his development
He paves the way for his light-squared bishop to enter the game soon. It'll take aim for the attractive diagonal pointing towards Carlsen's kingside.
Magnus castles
Both players are blitzing out their moves, since all of this is very heavily studied theory. One thing playing in Carlsen's favor is that he's got tremendous amount of experience in this line, much more than Arjun given their age difference.
Erigaisi occupies the long diagonal
He's going to be later to the party when it comes to castling his king, but that small lag is not of any real issue since it's not like there are any major lines open in the center. That is to say, his king is safe even if uncastled for now.
Magnus asks a question
Right now the bishop is ideally placed as it occupies two really powerful diagonals. Carlsen is basically forcing Arjun to choose which of the two attractive diagonals he prefers.
The natural retreat
Keeping the pressure on the knight (and to a lesser extent the bishop behind it) makes a lot more sense than dropping back to the other diagonal. After all, had he wanted that other diagonal he could just have played his bishop out there from the start.
Magnus solidifies his center
He's built a nice diagonal pawn chain running from the queenside to the center. It's a very typical move, adding support to the most central pawn.
Erigaisi picks a different route
Normally in chess we see the knight developing forward rather than more laterally as in this case. However, there's a concrete reason. The structure (that Carlsbad Structure we spoke about a few moves ago) means that Arjun has more pawn influence in the center. So he wants to keep his options open to push these in the future.
Magnus develops his queenside
The knight lacks other options given the way that Carlsen has configured his pieces, so for now the knight blocks the vision of the light-squared bishop. Not a big deal, since that knight will likely move again in the coming moves.
Time to castle!
After 10 moves, Erigaisi has completed his development. The king is now safe, and all the minor pieces have been stepped out. The players are steadily drifting towards the middlegame.
A somewhat rare choice!
This is the first moment in the game where the players have deviated from well trodden paths. That said, it's not a move that's going to frazze Arjun as it's a pretty typical idea. It's designed to cut out possible pawn pushes on that side of the board by the White side (Arjun).
Erigaisi seeks to expand
We had mentioned earlier that the reason why Arjun developed his king's knight laterally rather than jumping it in front was so that he could leave that square for his pawn to occupy. He does this now, aiming to increase his central control.
Aggression is the name of the game!
We're almost in unchartered territory by now, with only a couple of master level games in the database. It's quite possible that Arjun hasn't seen this idea. If he hasn't, then Magnus may very well be the side with the psychological advantage early on!
There doesn't appear to be a super concrete threat associated with this move. It's more just that slowly but surely Magnus wants to try and dominate the queenside. It's a tale of two sides here, with Arjun trying to make his mark on the center while Carlsen tries to overwhelm his opponent on the queenside. Whose strategy will prove more successful?!
A normal reaction
Arjun will be trying to work out what concrete threats Magnus might be able to build towards on the queenside over the coming moves. But for now he chooses to keep things solid and plays a typical move, connecting his rooks and also forming a 'bishop-queen battery'.
A battery is a term for when two pieces connect along either file, rank, or diagonal. In this case we say it's a bishop-queen battery because the bishop is in the front and the queen behind. A more dangerous battery would be a queen-bishop battery! Imagine if that was pointed at Carlsen's king...that could lead to some nasty checkmating threats!
A multi-purpose move
Still a lot of tension in the early stages of the middlegame. With his last move, Magnus indirectly pressures (x-rays) Arjun's undefended pawn along the central file. Another benefit is that he clears a square for his knight to maneuver to. Not a guarantee that he'll use it, but it's a typical idea.
Arjun sets up a big threat!
True to style, he goes for the most aggressive option and seizes the center. Magnus has to react immediately, since given one more move Arjun would push his pawn up one more square when Magnus would have no good square to run to with his knight!
Magnus hits the knight
His idea is to drive away the knight to in this way destabilize Arjun's control over his central pawn. It's a typical way of playing: strike on a flank to set up a punch in the center!
Erigaisi jumps to the edge
Normally you don't want knights far away from the center, but here it works well because it's a safe square, and it's one from where Arjun will influence some weak points on Carlsen's queenside.
Magnus goes for concrete action, forcing off a set of pawns. The more pawns that come off the board, the more lines of attack open up. So we can expect the play to really sharpen up in the next few moves!
Erigaisi takes back
Capturing with the pawn was practically forced, since otherwise Arjun's grip on the center would have loosened far too much.
Wow, it's quite surprising to me that Magnus has played this super sharp line as quickly as he has. He must have spent a while calculating the complications while Arjun was in the tank a few moves ago. It's a good move, but if he gets any part of the sequence wrong, it could spell disaster for him!
Arjun starts off by exchanging bishops. He didn't have time to take back the knight because otherwise that bishop would have fallen.
Magnus couldn't consider recapturing with the rook. He needed to form a battery with his queen and rook, so that his central knight is sufficiently well defended.
Has Magnus overlooked something?!
The position is truly crazy here, and it's not going to be of any comfort for Magnus to know that Arjun thrives in the chaos of super tactical positions. Carlsen's rook is now hanging, and there are nasty rook takes pawn ideas in the air too!
What makes me wonder if Magnus has seen all of these ideas is that perhaps he was originally planning to move his rook on the left hand corner to safety. But if he does this, then Arjun can (and should!) sacrifice his rook, when it cannot be safely recaptured. The computer says that Magnus is still doing well here, but recommends to calmly move his knight and allow Arjun to take his rook. That seems inhuman to me. Huge moment here.
If you're watching the evaluation bar, you will have noticed that Arjun is now better after this mistake by Magnus. But in human terms, the computer path was just not realistic. Instead, Magnus decides to sacrifice the exchange. Arjun will have by far the better chances, but for now anything can still happen.
Arjun will almost certainly take the rook, as everything else leaves Magnus with a better position. Magnus will then give a check with his queen and collect the undefended bishop the move after that. The rook is certainly worth more than the bishop, but Magnus will have better piece coordination so that's going to give him a good deal of compensation and keep his chances very much alive.
What's interesting is that Magnus appeared in the confessional booth shortly before the complications, and expressed that he was quite happy with the position he had managed to get out of the opening. But after the chaos started, his body language painted a clear change in his mood and his confidence levels. He was lost in thought and at the same time looking unusually tense right up until he made his last move.
After a bit of a think, Arjun does indeed 'accept the gift'. Likely he was spending his time not so much on deciding whether or not he wanted to take the rook, but making sure he has a good follow-up after Magnus wins his bishop in return.
Check!
Played instantly, since there's not much else to consider. Magnus is a rook down, so he must win the bishop immediately.
Erigaisi moves away from the check
Blocking with the rook was out of the question, as then Magnus would have jumped in with his knight to win more material than just the bishop.
Magnus gets back some material
He's now down an exchange, in this case a rook for just a bishop. Objectively, it's not quite enough. But for now at least he's the side with the initiative, as Arjun's pieces are pretty uncoordinated right now and his king still quite vulnerable.
Arjun's play has been sharp since the complications started, finding the best move at every turn. The knight jump is no exception, though where it's really going to get tricky for both sides is after Magnus moves his queen. The position is super sharp and even one slight mistake could spoil Arjun's advantage.
Magnus picks up the pawn
It's the most natural choice, reducing his material deficit. Now we've got Arjun's first big test: he needs to find one of two rook moves to keep his advantage. Other natural options like taking the pawn with his queen would allow Magnus to 'get out of jail' when both sides would have equal chances in what would remain a really complicated middlegame.
This move was the strongest option, and now the ball is firmly in Carlsen's court. He now must walk a very narrow path, with only one square being good for his queen. Anything else and Arjun could find himself in a near-winning position!
Magnus could be in trouble here. He chooses the wrong square for his queen, and now he is presenting Arjun with a golden opportunity to seize a commanding advantage here. He needs to slide his rook one square to the left, a little counterintuitive but a move you would expect a grandmaster of his caliber to find!
Arjun quickly finds the right way forward, and this move is going to come as a real blow for Magnus. I think he probably did see it, but may have overlooked a detail later on in the line. So now Carlsen's tournament fate appears to be in Arjun's hands. If the 21-year old grandmaster continues finding the right moves, Carlsen's position could soon collapse!
Magnus, in his recent confessional booth appearance, stated that he would not have entered these complications had he not missed a clever tactic (rook takes pawn, highlighted in the app on Arjun's 17th move). However, the world number 1 seemed to be quite optimistic about his position. He stated: "I think he is a bit better, if he finds some very difficult moves.". Uncharacteristically, it seems that Magnus might have misjudged the position as being less bad than it truly is. And now after Arjun's last move, it's quite likely that he is coming to the realization that he's in a lot of trouble!
Stuck between a rock and a hard place
Magnus drops the knight back, relying on a back rank tactic in the event that Arjun takes the bishop. But that position is still quite miserable for him. And if Arjun jumps in with his knight instead, then things will be even worse for Magnus. No matter what the Indian grandmaster does, it looks like he's going to be in with a risk-free chance of victory.
The tactical defense Magnus has spotted is that if rook takes bishop, then there's queen takes knight. Arjun won't be able to take the queen due to Carlsen's rook going down the file and checkmating along the back rank.
Erigaisi goes for the human choice
He forces simplifications into an endgame that is far easier to judge than the line the computer was recommending. He knows that once the dust settles, it's going to be a risk-free edge for him.
Forced
Magnus has to exploit Arjun's back rank immediately in order to recover his piece.
Without this move, Arjun would in fact have been losing! Now not only is his rook defended, it also means that Carlsen's queen is now hanging!
Magnus gives up his queen
It's the lesser evil. Arjun's queen was in charge of defending both of his rooks, so now Magnus will get two rooks for a queen. That's usually a good deal.
Erigaisi takes back
Arjun is fine to give up his two rooks, because he started with a material advantage. So now he's going to be left with a queen vs rook and knight. Maybe Magnus can hold a draw with best play, but it's going to be a tough hill to climb for the world number 1.
The dust settles
Magnus takes the rook, and to be honest he's probably going to be reasonably happy here even if he's got an unenviable defensive task ahead. He will likely sense that it could have been much worse.
The right way to play
Arjun's weak back rank has been causing him a bunch of issues for some time now, so he finally gives the monarch some much needed breathing room!
Magnus looking to defend his flank pawn
He brings his rook one square to the right, anticipating that Arjun is likely to target his left-hand pawns on the next move.
If there were no pawns on the queenside, then Magnus would have nothing to worry about. The issue is not so much that Magnus has less material, it's that his rook + knight + pawn are way less mobile, and guarding his pawns on the queenside over the coming moves is going to be a very tricky task.
Erigaisi strikes at the pawn
The issue for Magnus isn't that he can't defend it. It's that he can't defend it twice! By this I mean that Arjun will soon maneuver his knight to attack that pawn a second time.
Magnus deals with the threat
The problem for him is that it's much less clear what he plans to do if Arjun now pivots his knight around to target the pawn a second time.
Erigaisi adds to the pressure
Magnus is going to have to be incredibly precise here. Just one mistake and he's going to lose one (and perhaps both) pawns on the queenside without compensation. If that happens, it'll be a resignable position.
Magnus has to thread the eye of the needle here. For now he's surviving based on some tactical ideas involving a fast counterattack on Arjun's own queenside pawns.
Erigaisi prepares to capture the pawn
It may not be something he wishes to rush, as once he does take it then Magnus will be able to move on to the seventh rank (Arjun's second rank) with his rook. But the lingering threat is extremely uncomfortable to deal with.
The computer points out that Magnus should have jumped his knight forward to the right instead. Now, Arjun's position is close to winning because Carlsen needed to set up a knight jump on the right edge of the board in the key line. Arjun can now take the pawn safely!
The play is unfolding as well as he could have hoped, at least for now. I wrote a second ago that Carlsen needs the other game results to go his way, but that was based on a miscalculation. In fact, Fabiano Caruana will win the tournament by half a point if Magnus loses and Hikaru draws. Magnus needs a draw to avoid a last-round disaster!
A strong practical try
Magnus needs to muddy the waters asap, and this move serves its intended purpose. The point is to push the pawn in the near future and try to weave some kind of mating net or tactical opportunities against Arjun's king!
Not best
But it's a very natural move, just keeping Carlsen's rook from invading. Still, now Magnus can push his pawn forward and get exactly what he wanted.
It's not over just yet! Arjun now has to find some very precise moves to keep his advantage. The natural capture of pawn takes pawn for instance would be a big mistake, resulting in the position becoming close to equal!
Arjun stabilizes his knight, but now Magnus can trade pawns on the kingside and undermine the safety of his opponent's king. Game on!
Magnus finds the right move, trading pawns to soften up not just the king but leave the last pawn standing very hard to defend!
Now Magnus should follow up by sliding his rook over, when it can combine with one of his knights in order to hunt down that pawn. The world number 1 doing everything he can to keep the game alive!
Here we go! Could this be the start of a heroic save for Magnus? If he can pull it off, then he would likely win the tournament, unless Gukesh can somehow turn it around against Caruana!
He's starting to lose the thread of the position here. Now Magnus can jump forward with his knight and put the pawn under massive pressure. And what's more, he'll be able to capture it with check, which will buy him some valuable time.
Magnus stays patient for now, knowing that he can jump his knight forward to win the pawn on the next move.
A nice move by Arjun, creating the dual threats of queen takes pawn as well as knight to the center, which would cause problems for Carlsen's king.
Magnus knows he can't save his remaining pawn on the queenside, so he goes hunting for Arjun's weak pawn on the right hand side. It's not so much about the pawn itself, but about creating some kind of a net that will trap the enemy king enough to force a draw.
Arjun activates his knight, bringing it over to assist in the struggle on the kingside.
Magnus finally picks off the pawn. Objectively, the position is equal now. But it's super complicated and with clocks ticking down, all three results are possible!
Arjun moves his king away from the check.
Magnus improves his rook position, gaining time against Arjun's undefended knight.
Arjun wants to save some time himself, so moves away from the attack while giving a check to Carlsen's king.
Magnus escapes the check and targets the knight again.
Arjun jumps in with his knight. I wouldn't rule out that we see a quick draw from here via 3-fold repetition!
Is Magnus playing for a win?!!
What a choice of move by Magnus! Dropping the king certainly looked safer, but this is the more ambitious choice. Could it be that Magnus senses he might be able to extract more than a draw in the approaching time scramble?!!
Arjun Erigaisi goes horribly wrong! He takes the poisoned pawn, but now he is losing. If Magnus jumps the correct knight into the center, he will wrap a nasty net around the enemy king!!
Oh my goodness. What a rollercoaster of a game this has proven to be. Magnus has not only managed to come back from the dead, but in fact he has completely tricked Arjun Erigaisi. He's going to have to give up his queen for just a rook in order to avoid getting mated!
All or nothing!
Magnus needs to find the highlighted move in order to keep his winning advantage. It's a logical choice, tightening the noose around Arjun's king. But in time trouble, players see ghosts all the time. Will he find it?!
He finds it! Oh well, so much for the excitement of that poll :D Magnus takes little time to find the right path forward and now Arjun could be about to go down!
Arjun trying his best to narrow the path to victory for Magnus. If he fails to find a clever idea from here, he might still have to settle for a draw!
He doesn't find it!
We could have yet another turnaround here. Not in the sense that I think Arjun might win this, but the path to victory is no longer quite so clear...
Arjun gives a check, and will follow up with more checks to try and escape the near-mating net that Magnus has constructed against his king.
Magnus moves forward with his king. This is his idea, to try and use his king as part of the attack. But with Arjun still having a queen and knight, that's a dangerous strategy.
More checks!
Magnus will have to run his king towards the center if he wants to keep pushing for a win.
Arjun keeps checking, and now it's a question of how much risk Magnus wants to take. He should move towards the center, but he might take a draw instead.
For now Magnus repeats, though he can still change his mind.
It's clear that Arjun would be relieved to make a draw here, as with best play his position should be losing.
Will Magnus risk it?!
The thing is that given Caruana's winning position against Gukesh, a draw will be enough for him to win the tournament. But a loss would allow Caruana to leapfrog him! That incentivizes him to take the draw, but Magnus is a fighter...
Magnus decides to gamble. He's objectively winning, but it's a move that could certainly backfire in the scramble.
Not the best move, but not a bad one. And the most human for sure. Without that pawn, it's unlikely that Arjun will be able to ever push for a win, short of Magnus blundering terribly.
Great move! And a very dangerous one for Magnus to deal with as he is down to seconds on the clock!
Check!
The king is stuck in a 'drawing net'. Will Magnus bail out with a draw?!
Another check!
Surely it's going to be a draw here?!
Down to seconds for Magnus. Given the tournament standings, Magnus needs to make the draw!
Arjun has no other square to turn to.
Magnus, down to literal seconds, gives the check in the nick of time. This means that Arjun can now claim the draw!
What. A. Game! Magnus failed to convert right at the end, meaning that we're off to Armaggedon very soon. But for now, all eyes turn to the Caruana-Gukesh game which has taken a massive turn.
Magnus Carlsen is the 2025 Norway Chess Champion!!
What an absolute rollercoaster of a round, to cap off what's been an incredibly exciting 10 rounds at Stavanger, Norway.
The tournament promised to be a highlight of this year's calendar, with each member of the world's top 5 participating! And it certainly delivered, providing twists and drama in almost every round and culminating with a movie-like finale in the heat of the time scramble on today's top two boards.
Of the four players in with a chance at gold, it was Hikaru who found himself the first man out of the running, drawing from the Black side against Wei Yi. This left three players vying for top spot: Magnus Carlsen, Fabiano Caruana, and Gukesh Dommaraju.
This is where it gets crazy. Magnus came into the round with a half-point lead, and knew that only a win would guarantee first place. That was never going to be an easy task, and things turned nightmarish in the middlegame when he overlooked some tactical resources by Arjun. Suddenly, it looked like Magnus was heading towards a loss. This would have left both Fabiano and Gukesh in with a chance at gold, depending on the result of their game.
Fabiano, for his part, was putting a serious damper on Gukesh's chances. He had an advantage from the start, and it looked like the American was on his way to converting. This gave Magnus a bit more freedom, because a draw would still be enough for him if Fabiano won, whereas if Gukesh won then he would tie Magnus on points!
To add to the drama, while Gukesh was on his way to what looked like a loss, Magnus flipped the script completely and suddenly he was winning! But then it was Arjun's turn to complicate matters, and with literal seconds on the clock Magnus saw nothing better than to force a draw.
This left Gukesh with seconds on his clock, and knowing that he would need a draw to tie Magnus on points, and - depending on the result of their Armaggedon match - potentially even win the tournament outright!
Unfortunately, it was to be heartbreak in the final round of yet another supertournament this year for the World Champion. He lost a tiebreak to Praggnanandhaa in the Tata Masters, and today he was left with his head in his hands once again as he blundered at the last hurdle against Fabiano after clawing his way back to a drawn position.
Fabiano wins his game and claims second place. Gukesh third. And, a headline that chess fans are very much used to by now: Magnus Carlsen is the winner!